Being Jordanian myself, I have considered several times the possibility of Jordan being completely wiped off the map of the Middle East. I don't think I'm alone here. Plenty of Jordanians have witnessed events that threatened the very existence of Jordan as a nation. For many years the main threat to Jordan was not only coming from Israel but rather from the neighbors; Iraq, Syria and Egypt. The leaderships in these countries have considered the Jordanian regime an obstacle to the liberation of Palestine and the unity of Arabs. For about three decades after its foundation, Jordan had witnessed several wars with Israel, one brief dirty civil war, the assassination of the king and two prime ministers, in addition to several assassination attempts on late King Hussein and states of instability that the country went through but miraculously survived.
Jordan is about sixty-years old. I will personally divide it into two eras, each being three-decades long. The first is the one I just talked about, and the second is the one starting in the late 1970s, after Al-Sadat signed a peace treaty with Israel. It looks to me that whatever happens in Egypt will soon affect the Arab world one way or another..
First came Nasser, and his nationalistic tone hit Arabs in their core. They loved him. Then came Sadat, he gave Arabs victory but later infuriated them with shaking hands with the enemy. Whether they liked or not, Arab leaders realized they could not fight a major war with Israel without Egypt being an essential part of it.
Beginning in the late 70's Jordan became a more secure country, the country that most of the young people including me know, a safe country where nothing wrong should happen. The main threats to Jordan were not external anymore. The Iraqi regime became less hostile at the time Al-Baker. Syria's tone towards Jordan calmed down after Black September, and Al-Sadat had no interest in toppling the Jordanian regime. Israel knew that Jordan did not and could not fight another war.
A lot of things happened since then. Three gulf wars, a Lebanese civil war, Iran became a different country, several peace treaties were signed and we had a new leadership. A large influx of people immigrated to Jordan but
again, Jordan survived.
That made me wonder how will our country look like in the next three decades?
The last war in Iraq might have been more than what we could handle. It was different from the previous ones. The whole country of Iraq was destroyed, and to make things worse there was a significant racial divide that spread to other countries in the region. Currently 15% of Jordan's population consists of Iraqis who are not going anywhere anytime soon. If a democrat wins the US elections there's a near-100% chance the US troops will start withdrawing from Iraq soon afterwards and will never come back to the region for whatever reason. Syria's current president did not inherit any iron fist from his father and there's an increasing dissatisfaction with the dominance of
Alawiyyin in the country, in addition to the internal conflicts within
al-Assad family. Lebanon: worse, they can't figure a way to select or elect a president.
Husni Mubarak has never been that
unpopular in Egypt.
Jordan has never been a rich country; however the level of poverty of plenty of families combined with the obscene level of apparently undeserved wealth of another group of Jordanians seemed to have miserably affected the middle class. Add to that the
awful situation Palestinians are
growing through in the West Bank and Gaza, and the terrible injustice they're subject to both by their own people and by Israel
amidst Arab silence, you can tell there are a lot of angry people in Jordan.
All of these facts cross my mind when I think of the events that shaped, if not created, my country. The question of how we will look like in 30 years stays in mind and I have no answer to it. I don't know if anyone living in the late 70's could have thought the region would look like that by now. Everything was sudden, unpredictable and insane and there's every reason to believe the future of the region will be so.